probability

“Markovian models -- specifically, hidden Markov Models -- are also related to our old friend, Bayesian spam filtering. They're even better!”

“First, I computed my annoyance ratio to determine the probability that each student would want to beat me up,” said Mosley. “Then I gauged that against the Beatings to Hand Raises Theory along with past historical data from my previous more...

“ How Fair is Monopoly? by Ian Stewart Reproduced with permission of the author How Fair Is Monopoly? Everyone has played Monopoly. But few, I'd imagine, have ever thought about the math involved. In fact, the probability of winning at more...

Dear Overcoming Bias, are there biases I can exploit to be seen as generous without actually spending lots of money? I'm glad to report the answer is yes!

Subjects reported afterward that even though they knew the probabilities were against them, they felt they had a better chance when there were more red beans. This may sound crazy to you, Mr. Statistically Sophisticated Reader, but if you think more...

How much money would you accept in exchange for a 1-in-a-billion chance of immediate death? Students commonly say they wouldn't take this wager for any amount of money. Then I have to explain that they will do things such as more...

Maybe your friends are all wearing Bayes' Theorem T-shirts, and you're feeling left out. Maybe you're a girl looking for a boyfriend, but the boy you're interested in refuses to date anyone who "isn't Bayesian". What matters is that Bayes more...

“100% Kelly strategy marks the boundary between aggressive and insane investing”

A popular belief about "rationality" is that rationality opposes all emotion - that all our sadness and all our joy are automatically anti-logical by virtue of being feelings. Yet strangely enough, I can't find any theorem of probability theory which more...

When I grew up I read the Feynman Lectures on Physics, and discovered a gem called 'the wave equation'. I thought about that equation, on and off for three days, until I saw to my satisfaction it was dumbfoundingly simple. more...

black swan is a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations.